Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.265762 2.405060 2.552408 2.720552 2.907952 3.111375 3.350229
2025-05-18 2.050917 2.240003 2.450017 2.702898 3.002351 3.349875 3.790180
2025-05-25 1.907166 2.122458 2.369514 2.678283 3.060243 3.526398 4.153747
2025-06-01 1.798017 2.029658 2.302218 2.652994 3.102558 3.674876 4.486876
2025-06-08 1.722482 1.968323 2.263955 2.654445 3.171279 3.855780 4.878208
2025-06-15 1.670700 1.930628 2.249541 2.681210 3.270523 4.082195 5.360493
2025-06-22 1.597196 1.860579 2.188461 2.640323 3.271704 4.167903 5.640085
2025-06-29 1.530254 1.794805 2.128256 2.595000 3.260628 4.231315 5.889183
2025-07-06 1.465017 1.727864 2.062549 2.537085 3.225507 4.252850 6.068379
2025-07-13 1.440716 1.712468 2.063475 2.570354 3.324108 4.487851 6.653994
2025-07-20 1.421904 1.702970 2.071136 2.612565 3.438109 4.758457 7.357588
2025-07-27 1.403680 1.693097 2.077237 2.652046 3.550023 5.037473 8.140263
2025-08-03 1.365222 1.655027 2.043322 2.631680 3.567332 5.158460 8.630486
2025-08-10 1.330541 1.620789 2.013222 2.615136 3.589250 5.289977 9.178328
2025-08-17 1.296143 1.585606 1.980126 2.591838 3.597548 5.396353 9.694675
2025-08-24 1.263785 1.552074 1.947911 2.567888 3.602424 5.496010 10.222350
2025-08-31 1.240986 1.531005 1.932664 2.569263 3.650429 5.685428 11.049686
2025-09-07 1.226467 1.520941 1.932815 2.594610 3.742024 5.975148 12.277326
2025-09-14 1.194786 1.485579 1.894370 2.555884 3.715269 6.012215 12.743685
2025-09-21 1.163536 1.449996 1.854445 2.512932 3.677856 6.022049 13.128788
2025-09-28 1.130482 1.411035 1.808352 2.458009 3.614952 5.969185 13.285136
2025-10-05 1.122106 1.407211 1.814666 2.489565 3.715906 6.298773 14.987218
2025-10-12 1.116257 1.406751 1.825867 2.529582 3.836072 6.693438 17.233525